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首页> 外文OA文献 >Warning Models For Coffee Rust Control In Growing Areas With Large Fruit Load [modelos De Alerta Para O Controle Da Ferrugem-do-cafeeiro Em Lavouras Com Alta Carga Pendente]
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Warning Models For Coffee Rust Control In Growing Areas With Large Fruit Load [modelos De Alerta Para O Controle Da Ferrugem-do-cafeeiro Em Lavouras Com Alta Carga Pendente]

机译：水果负荷大的种植区咖啡锈病预警模型

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摘要

The objective of this work was to develop decision trees as warning models of coffee (Coffea arabica L.) rust in growing areas with large fruit load. Monthly data of disease incidence in the field collected during eight years were transformed into binary values considering limits of 5 and 10 percentage points in the infection rate. Models were generated from meteorological data and space between plants for each binary infection rate. The warning is indicated when the infection rate is expected to reach or exceed the respective limit in a month. The accuracy obtained by cross-validating the model to the limit of 5 percentage points was 81%, reaching up to 89% according to an optimistic estimate. This model showed good results for other important evaluation measures, such as sensitivity (80%), specificity (83%), positive reliability (79%), and negative reliability (84%). The model for the limit of 10 percentage points had a 79% accuracy and did not show the same balance among the other evaluation measures. Together, these two models may support the decisions about coffee rust control in the field. The decision tree induction is a viable alternative to conventional modeling techniques, thus facilitating the comprehension of the models. © 2009 Embrapa Informação Tecnológica.
机译：这项工作的目的是开发决策树，将其作为在水果负荷大的种植区咖啡（锈咖啡）生锈的预警模型。考虑到感染率限制在5个百分点和10个百分点，将八年来收集的该地区每月疾病发病率数据转换为二进制值。从气象数据和植物之间的空间以每种二元感染率生成模型。当预计感染率在一个月内达到或超过各自的限值时，将显示警告。通过对模型进行交叉验证到5个百分点的限制而获得的准确性为81％，根据乐观的估计可以达到89％。该模型对其他重要的评估指标显示出良好的结果，例如敏感性（80％），特异性（83％），正可靠性（79％）和负可靠性（84％）。极限值为10个百分点的模型的准确度为79％，在其他评估指标之间没有显示出相同的平衡。这两个模型一起可以支持有关现场咖啡防锈控制的决策。决策树归纳法是传统建模技术的可行替代方案，从而有助于模型的理解。 ©2009 Embrapa技术信息©Tecnológica。

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